Melamine Monthly Review: Slight Rise Followed By Slow Decline (Oct 2022)
1.This month’s market review
1.1 Analysis of domestic melamine price trend
In October, China’s melamine market first rose and then fell, the adjustment is small. National Day before the enterprise actively receive orders, the overall situation is good, the holiday period is basically normal shipment, after the holiday also more orders can continue to execute, so the production and sales pressure is not big; After the holiday, some downstream factories will resume work or increase the load, and there is still some steel to be purchased. Therefore, some manufacturers began to tentatively raise the price, and under the influence of buy up not buy down sentiment, some downstream appropriate to follow up, the price can gradually push up. However, as the price rises, the downstream resistance increases, and the willingness of some traders to ship is significantly enhanced, the market supply continues to increase, the price is weak to push up, and then the pressure drops. As the price drops, the enthusiasm of downstream purchasing drops significantly, and manufacturers actively accept orders and deliver goods, so the negotiation space for transaction is constantly expanding. However, with some support from the cost side, the ex-factory price drops, with the decline slowing down significantly.
2.Market analysis and forecast for next month
From the cost aspect, the late raw material urea market deadlock, the current price is relatively high, melamine can still provide a certain cost support.
From the perspective of supply, in the later stage, part of the discontinued equipment storage and resumption plan, the start-up load rate of enterprises may be slightly increased, but it only fluctuates at about 60%, and the supply of goods is relatively stable.
From the demand level, November continues to be in the traditional consumption season, but the market is not good, will affect the normal production of some downstream factories, the overall demand side may still be in a tepid situation, difficult to form a strong boost to the market.
The domestic melamine market in November or will continue the stalemate running situation, the space for rise and fall are relatively limited. With the opening of a new round of procurement cycle in the later period, the transaction situation may be improved, and the price may be pushed up. However, the good news about the fundamentals is relatively limited, and the rebound height of the market is expected to be restricted. As the price rises to a certain height, the market also has the risk of hitting the top and falling.
In addition, for the forecast of the next three months, it is expected that the market will be in a low and volatile operation situation, supply and demand are weak, the cost surface still has some support, the range of rise and fall are limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range of 7000-8000 yuan/ton.